FOXNews.com: It's just about over for Santorum

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It's just about over for Santorum Apr 5th 2012, 12:44 Most political contests have an inflection point where the outcome becomes clear. Tuesday was such a moment for the GOP presidential sweepstakes. Mitt Romney's sweep of the District of Columbia, Maryland and Wisconsin netted him 86 more delegates while Rick Santorum gained six.  Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul were shut out.  Just over half the GOP delegates have been picked: Mr. Romney has 658 (58% of the 1,144 needed for the nomination) and a 377-delegate lead over Mr. Santorum, according to the Associated Press. Mr. Romney needs to win only 43% of the delegates yet to be selected. Mr. Santorum needs 77% of them. Based on recent statements by him, his campaign and its supporters, Mr. Santorum has what amounts to a five-part strategy to achieve victory: (1) disqualify the Romney delegations from Florida and Arizona's winner-take-all primaries; (2) run up his total in states that select delegates by conventions, not primaries; (3) carry his home state of Pennsylvania; (4) take advantage of "the map in May" which, as Mr. Santorum told "Fox News Sunday" moderator Chris Wallace this week, "looks very, very good"; and (5) swing over uncommitted delegates. This strategy won't work. Any attempt to disqualify Mr. Romney's Florida and Arizona delegations is based on a misreading of the Republican Party's Rule 16. That says if a state moves its primary before the first Tuesday in March, "the number of delegates to the national convention from that state shall be reduced by fifty percent." But contrary to a recent memo by the pro-Santorum Super PAC, the Red, White & Blue Fund, the rule imposes no additional decrease in the number of its delegates if it also changes its primary to award delegates on a winner-take-all basis, as Florida and Arizona did. Mr. Santorum may be correct that in convention states like Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota, he can get more delegates than indicated by his share of the vote in the first round of precinct caucuses. But winning conventions requires organization. Mr. Santorum has little. Mr. Santorum carried North Dakota by 40% to Mr. Romney's 24% in the March 6 nonbinding caucuses. But at last Saturday's state convention, Mr. Romney appears to have won 20 delegates to Mr. Santorum's six and Ron Paul's two. Pennsylvania is a "make or break state" for Mr. Santorum alone, not for Mr. Romney, despite what the Santorum campaign has said. Mr. Santorum is likely to win his home state on April 24, but not by much. A Quinnipiac poll this week had him up by six points. Karl Rove is a former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush. He is a Fox News contributor and author of "Courage and Consequence" (Threshold Editions, 2010). To continue reading his column on Rick Santorum in The Wall Street Journal, click here. Related Stories Romney looks for primary knockout in Pennsylvania Santorum stakes his future on Pennsylvania

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